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Tuesday, March 18, 2025

A Nation at a Crossroads: Sara Duterte’s Impeachment Trial Pushes Forward Amid ICC Turmoil


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As the Philippines braces for one of its most politically charged moments in recent history, Senate President Chiz Escudero has assured the public that the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte will push through as planned, despite the intensifying probe by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into former President Rodrigo Duterte.


The highly anticipated trial, set to begin on June 2 and expected to last six months, comes at a time when the Duterte family finds itself at the center of both local and international legal battles. With the ICC investigation gaining momentum and the possibility of an arrest warrant looming over Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, the former chief architect of the Duterte administration’s controversial war on drugs, the nation is on edge, waiting to see how these events will unfold.


A Legal Storm Unfolds

Escudero made it clear that no external factor—be it the ICC probe or mass protests—would derail the Senate from its constitutional duty.


"Wala sa batas na ipapaliban namin ang impeachment dahil may ICC. Wala sa batas na ipapaliban namin ang impeachment dahil may kilos protesta," he stated firmly.


His words underscore a critical message: the impeachment process will be insulated from political noise and will move forward as mandated by law. Whether or not the ICC’s findings impact the trial remains to be seen, but Escudero insists that the two matters are separate.


"Whether nagsabay o hindi, wala namang nakasulat na batas na bawal magsabay," he added, signaling that the Senate would not allow the ICC investigation to dictate the pace of domestic proceedings.


The Duterte Defense and a Divided Nation

Adding to the political drama, Vice President Sara Duterte has openly declared her involvement in her father’s defense team against the ICC. Her decision to stand by the former president has only deepened the divide between her allies and critics. While her impeachment trial is centered on separate allegations, many see it as part of a broader reckoning for the Duterte era.


Meanwhile, the possibility of an ICC arrest warrant against Senator Bato Dela Rosa has raised further complications. Escudero assured that the Senate would not allow his arrest within its premises but acknowledged that law enforcement agencies might still act outside Senate grounds.


The uncertainty surrounding Dela Rosa’s fate adds another layer of complexity to the political crisis. Will the former PNP chief, once hailed as Duterte’s fiercest enforcer, face international justice? Or will political maneuvering shield him from accountability?


A Test of the Senate’s Independence

Beyond the legal battles, the impeachment trial will serve as a litmus test for the integrity of the Philippine Senate. The Duterte family has long commanded strong political influence, and any hint of bias—whether for or against the Vice President—could shatter public trust in the institution.


Escudero has sought to allay concerns by reiterating the Senate’s commitment to impartiality.


"Hindi namin isasaalang-alang ang pulitika sa pagpapatupad ng aming tungkulin. May kanya-kanyang papel ang bawat sangay ng gobyerno, at tutuparin namin ang sa amin," he declared.


With the trial expected to conclude before December, the months ahead will be pivotal in shaping the political landscape. If found guilty, Vice President Duterte’s removal could dramatically shift the country’s power dynamics, leaving a void in leadership that could either pave the way for political renewal or further deepen existing divisions.


The Road Ahead

As the impeachment trial looms, the Duterte family stands at a precarious juncture, facing simultaneous legal battles on multiple fronts. The coming months will not only determine Vice President Sara Duterte’s political future but will also define the nation’s commitment to justice, accountability, and the rule of law.


Will the Senate prove its independence and uphold due process? Or will political allegiances and power struggles overshadow the pursuit of truth?


One thing is certain: the world will be watching.

ICC Warrant of Arrest Targets Duterte’s Inner Circle: A Turning Point in the Philippine Drug War Accountability?


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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has taken a bold step in its investigation into the controversial war on drugs in the Philippines, naming nine individuals as co-perpetrators alongside former President Rodrigo Duterte. This revelation, seen in an application for a warrant of arrest posted on the ICC’s website, signals a dramatic escalation in the quest for accountability over thousands of extrajudicial killings.


A Web of Redacted Names and High-Profile Figures

While the ICC has redacted the names of several co-perpetrators for their safety, key figures from Duterte’s administration—those who played crucial roles in the aggressive anti-drug campaign—have been identified. The most notable among them is Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, the former Philippine National Police (PNP) chief who spearheaded "Oplan Tokhang." This controversial operation, first executed in Davao City under his watch, became the backbone of the nationwide drug war when Duterte assumed the presidency.


Dela Rosa, long considered Duterte’s most loyal enforcer, now faces the possibility of international legal scrutiny. His involvement in Oplan Tokhang—where thousands of alleged drug offenders were summarily executed—places him at the center of allegations of crimes against humanity.


Joining him on the list is former Davao City Police Chief Vicente Danao, his predecessor, who played a crucial role in enforcing Duterte’s brand of justice in the city before it was expanded nationwide.


Sara Duterte: A Shadow of Her Father’s Legacy?

Perhaps the most politically explosive inclusion in the ICC document is Vice President Sara Duterte. While not directly accused, her connection to her father’s administration has placed her under scrutiny. Serving as Davao City mayor from 2010 to 2013, with Rodrigo Duterte as her vice mayor, she was in a position of authority during the early years of the brutal anti-drug crackdown in their hometown.


Her inclusion raises critical questions: Was she merely a bystander, or did she facilitate the operations that eventually became a nationwide campaign of bloodshed? As the most powerful Duterte still in government, will she be forced to distance herself from her father’s legacy to protect her own political future?


The ICC’s Pursuit of Justice: Political Tension on the Horizon

The release of this warrant application is expected to reignite fierce debates in the Philippines. Supporters of Duterte’s administration argue that the drug war was necessary to combat rampant crime and addiction, painting the ICC investigation as foreign interference in sovereign affairs. Critics, however, see this as a long-overdue reckoning for the thousands of lives lost—many of them poor and defenseless—during the violent crackdown.


With this new development, the pressure mounts on the Marcos administration. Will President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continue to shield Duterte and his allies from international prosecution, or will he allow due process to unfold?


Meanwhile, the named individuals—Dela Rosa, Danao, and potentially others whose identities remain concealed—now face the weight of global justice. If the ICC moves forward with an arrest warrant, they could find themselves trapped within the borders of the Philippines, unable to travel without fear of being detained abroad.


What Comes Next?

The implications of this ICC warrant application are seismic. If the court proceeds with official charges, the Philippines may find itself at the center of a historic legal battle, one that could redefine the limits of presidential immunity and international accountability.


As the dust settles, one question remains: Is this the beginning of justice for the thousands of Filipinos who perished in the war on drugs, or will political maneuvering once again protect those in power? The world is watching.

Monday, March 17, 2025

The Calculated Gambit: Rodrigo Duterte’s Arrest and the Future of Philippine Politics


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The dramatic arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte upon his return to the Philippines has sent shockwaves through the nation and beyond. What initially seemed like a tactical victory for his adversaries may, in the grander scheme, be a strategic masterpiece—one that cements his legacy, revitalizes his political allies, and sets the stage for the 2028 elections.


A City Under Siege

Davao City, the long-standing Duterte stronghold, has been systematically dismantled:


Budget cuts have crippled local operations.

Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, one of Duterte’s key allies, has been detained.

Karlo Nograles is eyeing the mayoralty, signaling an attempt by the political opposition to seize control.

Allies have turned away, fearing for their own political survival.

Key Duterte supporters have been silenced, with vloggers shut down on social media and summoned to Congress.

Vice President Sara Duterte, his daughter, has been stripped of her budget, investigated by the QuadComm, and now faces an impeachment trial.

Despite these mounting pressures, Duterte chose to return home. The question remains—why?


A Tactical Blow, A Strategic Victory

From a tactical standpoint, the swiftness of Duterte’s arrest stunned the nation. His critics celebrated, believing that the battle was over. But when viewed from a broader lens, his surrender sets off a chain reaction of political and social upheaval.


Duterte’s legacy is now immortalized in Philippine history. If he is acquitted at the International Criminal Court (ICC), he emerges victorious. If convicted or even if he dies in detention, his narrative transforms into that of a martyr—a leader who stood his ground until the end still believing that the bloodshed he orchestrated with his minions was right.


The Aftermath: A Resurging Duterte Movement

Far from being a death knell, Duterte’s arrest has reinvigorated his base:


The rallying cry “Duterte! Duterte!” echoed in Davao, where his son, Baste Duterte, has solidified his leadership.

The opposition in Davao now faces an uphill battle, as the Duterte name continues to wield influence.

Politicians who abandoned him are now labeled as traitors, while those who remained loyal are celebrated as heroes.

The bloggers and vloggers of the Duterte camp, once silenced, have found a new sense of purpose. Public sentiment is surging, with reports indicating 70% anger over his arrest.

Spontaneous protests have erupted across the Philippines and abroad, turning the failed Maisug Rally into a more widespread and decentralized movement.

Duterte’s Senate slate has gained momentum—with Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, and their allies climbing in popularity polls. This puts the administration’s Senate lineup on the defensive.

Even within Marcos' camp, there are signs of hesitation. Some of his allies, including Senators Pia Cayetano, Cynthia Villar, and Imee Marcos, distanced themselves from the rally celebrating Duterte’s downfall. The Villar family, one of the wealthiest political clans in the country, has even hinted at displeasure over the arrest.


2025: A Political Turning Point

The upcoming 2025 midterm elections are shaping up to be a litmus test for 2028. If Duterte’s allies sweep the Senate, the impeachment case against VP Sara Duterte becomes politically unviable. Moreover, Sara Duterte is now emerging as the most preferred candidate for president in 2028, surpassing even Raffy Tulfo.


The local campaign period starts in late March—Duterte’s birthday month. His allies will seize this moment, while his detractors scramble to defend themselves.


The administration is already showing signs of unease. Recently, allowances for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) were increased—a move that suggests the government is wary of dissent within the military ranks.


The Final Move: A Man in Love with Destiny

Duterte’s arrest was not the endgame—it was a calculated move. Those who underestimated him forget that his political career was built on unexpected, strategic plays.


As a 79-year-old leader, he knows that the twilight of his life is near. But he also understands that great leaders do not fade away—they leave behind a movement that transcends their lifetime.


In choosing to return despite the looming threat of arrest, he secured his place in history. The move was reminiscent of Sun Tzu’s “Art of War”, where victory is achieved not through brute force, but through the ability to manipulate perception and dictate the battlefield.


In the long run, whether he is acquitted or convicted, Duterte has already won. He will either be remembered as a leader who defied the odds or a martyr who inspired a nation.


And just as he told VP Sara Duterte before his arrest—“Umuwi ka.”


The battle is far from over.

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