Decoding Survey Politics: Are Filipinos Really More Pro-Marcos Than Pro-Duterte?

Wazzup Pilipinas!?

A recent survey by OCTA Research claims that 36% of Filipinos support President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. (BBM), a figure that is reportedly twice the number of those backing former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (PRRD). However, a deeper look into various survey results from other established firms like Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia raises questions about the reliability and interpretation of such metrics.

Dissecting the Numbers

Election campaign strategists often rely on metrics like endorsement power, trust, approval, and satisfaction ratings rather than the ambiguous notion of "support." According to data from other firms, PRRD and Vice President Sara Duterte maintain a solid backing of around 31%, whereas BBM hovers at approximately 16% in terms of endorsement influence. These numbers suggest a different narrative from what OCTA presents.

Furthermore, Pulse Asia’s latest survey places BBM and Sara Duterte’s trust ratings at near parity (50% vs. 49%). If we scrutinize the composition of these groups, those who trust BBM appear to consist of both his core loyalists and some remnants of the "dilawan/pink" opposition, while Sara Duterte and PRRD’s support base remains consolidated and unwavering.

If trust, approval, and satisfaction are more commonly used to gauge public perception, why then does OCTA employ the term "support"—a metric that other established survey firms have seemingly avoided?

What Does "Support" Really Mean?

The problem with using "support" as a standalone metric is its ambiguity. Are we talking about passive or active support? Does it translate to votes, approval of policies, or merely a preference over alternatives? Additionally, lumping the Marcoses and the Dutertes into singular, monolithic political brands is problematic. The Duterte political brand spans PRRD, Sara, and Baste, while the Marcos dynasty consists of BBM, Imee, and Sandro. Do all Dutertes command the same level of public approval? Do all Marcoses?

When the term "Duterte" is used, which Duterte is being referred to? Similarly, does the Marcos branding include the still-revered yet long-gone Marcos Sr.? Without clear distinctions, the interpretation of "support" becomes murky at best and misleading at worst.

The Power of Incumbency

There is an inherent bias toward supporting the incumbent government. BBM, as the sitting president, naturally enjoys this advantage. But comparing his standing to PRRD, who is no longer in office, creates an uneven playing field. The real question should be how BBM fares against VP Sara, a likely challenger in 2028. If the Duterte brand were truly waning, why does VP Sara still lead the race for the next presidency, reportedly outpacing Raffy Tulfo by around 5%?

Interestingly, Pulse Asia also found that support for VP Sara’s impeachment has dropped—a sign that even among critics, she retains significant political capital. While she has faced periodic dips in popularity, often due to her combative rhetoric, she regains traction when she adopts a more composed stance.

OCTA’s Role: Measuring Public Sentiment or Shaping It?

Skepticism about OCTA’s findings is not unwarranted. While established firms like Pulse Asia and SWS have decades of experience in surveying public sentiment, OCTA is relatively new to the field. If "support" were a truly reliable metric, why have the older, more credible survey institutions stuck to "trust," "approval," and "satisfaction" instead?

Additionally, the timing of OCTA’s surveys often raises eyebrows. Whenever trust or approval ratings reveal unflattering results for the administration—such as the BBM-Sara split at 50%-49%, reflecting a deeply divided nation—an OCTA report conveniently emerges, highlighting Marcos’ supposed dominance over the Dutertes. Coincidence, or a strategic narrative shift?

Political Calculations and the 2025 Senate Race

Looking ahead to the 2025 Senate race, the PBBM slate is leading the pack, though notable exceptions include Villar and Abalos. However, many of the names in his lineup are political giants who would likely win regardless of their affiliation. Their inclusion in the administration ticket is a matter of convenience—they gain campaign support, logistical resources, and visibility without needing to fight tooth and nail for it.

Yet, when these household names secure victories, the administration will undoubtedly spin the outcome as further proof of BBM’s "support." This narrative, paired with OCTA’s data, could be leveraged to push impeachment efforts against VP Sara and weaken her 2028 prospects.

The Real Question: If Duterte Support is Dwindling, Why the Desperation?

If the Duterte brand were truly fading, why does the administration continue to invest time, energy, and resources in dismantling its influence? Why push for PRRD’s ICC indictment? Why attempt to weaken Davao’s stronghold? Why persist in impeachment efforts against VP Sara? These actions suggest that despite OCTA’s "support" numbers, the Duterte brand remains a formidable political force—one that the Marcos camp views as a significant threat.

In the end, surveys can serve one of two purposes: to gauge public sentiment or to shape it. The challenge is distinguishing between the two. And as history has shown, numbers don’t always tell the full story.

*From the reaction post of Bo Aureas

Shame on Candidates Who Don’t Show Up: The 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections and the Fight for Transparency

Wazzup Pilipinas!?

The 2025 Philippine midterm elections are shaping up to be one of the most consequential political battles in recent history. With over 18,000 positions up for grabs—including 12 Senate seats, 254 district representatives, and numerous local government posts—the choices voters make on May 12 will determine the future of governance in the country.

Yet, a disturbing trend is emerging: many leading candidates are refusing to engage with the public in electoral debates and forums, robbing voters of the opportunity to scrutinize their platforms and leadership qualities. If we wouldn’t date someone without getting to know them first, why should we entrust the future of our country to candidates who refuse to show up?

When Candidates Ghost Voters

The absence of major candidates from debates is nothing new, but its normalization is a dangerous precedent. At a recent senatorial debate hosted by GMA Network, only one “winnable” candidate—Senator Ronald dela Rosa—bothered to attend. The rest? No-shows. At Rappler’s Manila and Marikina election fora, key mayoral candidates like Isko Moreno, Honey Lacuna, and Maan Teodoro also declined invitations.

This behavior follows the example set by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who in 2022 infamously skipped all presidential debates. Now, many of his anointed senatorial candidates appear to be following suit, preferring to attend controlled events that shield them from scrutiny and difficult questions.

COMELEC Takes Action

The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) is considering making debate participation mandatory, a move that underscores how bad the situation has become. Public debates provide voters with a crucial platform to assess candidates beyond vague campaign promises and carefully curated social media posts. If candidates truly believe in their platforms, they should have no problem defending them on national television.

Why This Election Matters More Than Ever

This election is not just about filling seats—it’s about shaping the political future of the Philippines. Vice President Sara Duterte’s recent impeachment has raised the stakes, as newly elected senators will play a key role in determining the outcome of her trial. Furthermore, the fractured Marcos-Duterte alliance adds another layer of intrigue, with rumors that former President Rodrigo Duterte and his sons might run for the Senate to challenge Marcos’ hold on power.

Meanwhile, the party-list system—meant to give marginalized sectors a voice in Congress—is facing credibility issues. Election watchdog Kontra Daya has flagged 86 party-list groups for allegedly being linked to political dynasties, businesses, and the military. If voters don’t scrutinize their choices, these groups could end up serving elite interests rather than the communities they claim to represent.

The Battle Against Disinformation

Adding to the chaos, the rise of deepfakes and AI-generated misinformation is making it harder than ever for voters to discern fact from fiction. Social media is already flooded with misleading narratives designed to manipulate public perception. Now more than ever, Filipinos must be vigilant in verifying sources and questioning the information they consume.

What Can Voters Do?

We, the voters, hold the power to change the status quo—but only if we demand accountability. Here’s what we can do:

Call out candidates who refuse to engage. Post on social media, write letters, and demand transparency.

Base your vote on substance, not spectacle. Don’t be swayed by empty slogans and celebrity endorsements.

Attend debates and forums whenever possible. Engage in meaningful discussions with fellow voters.

Educate yourself about party-list groups. Research their backgrounds to ensure they genuinely represent their causes.

Be critical of information online. Misinformation is rampant; verify sources before sharing content.

Conclusion: Reject the No-Shows

If we wouldn’t go out on a date with someone who ghosts us, why would we vote for a candidate who refuses to engage with the public? Democracy thrives when leaders are held accountable, but it suffers when we allow them to hide behind scripted rallies and controlled environments.

It’s time we make it clear: those who don’t show up don’t deserve our vote. On May 12, let’s reject the no-shows and choose leaders who respect and engage with the people they seek to serve.

*From Rappler's Be the Good newsletter 

UPD-CS Mathematicians Unveil a Groundbreaking Matrix Decomposition Framework

Wazzup Pilipinas!?

Mathematics is often described as the language of the universe, and researchers at the University of the Philippines Diliman - College of Science (UPD-CS) have taken a significant step in refining this language. Drs. Agnes Paras and Jenny Salinasan from the UPD-CS Institute of Mathematics, along with Dr. Dennis Merino from Southeastern Louisiana University, have introduced an innovative approach to matrix decomposition, a fundamental concept in linear algebra. Their findings, published in Linear Algebra and its Applications, could have profound implications in various scientific and technological fields, including quantum optics, machine learning, and control systems.

The Significance of Matrix Decomposition

Matrix decomposition is akin to breaking down a complex system into simpler, more understandable components. Think of a locked treasure chest requiring two interdependent keys—matrices often hold valuable information, and decomposing them allows researchers to unlock their full potential.

In their study, the UPD-CS mathematicians explored the ϕS polar decomposition, a specialized form of polar decomposition, to determine necessary and sufficient conditions for a matrix to be decomposed into symplectic and skew-Hamiltonian matrices. These special matrices are crucial in disciplines such as quantum optics and systems control.

Key Findings: Unlocking the Mystery of Matrix Decomposition

The researchers identified three essential conditions for a square matrix X to possess a ϕS polar decomposition:

The matrix product ϕS(X)X must have a square root exhibiting specific symmetry.

ϕS(X)X and another product, XϕS(X), must share fundamental properties.

The matrices [XϕS(X)]kX must maintain an even rank for any nonnegative integer k.

These conditions refine the existing mathematical framework and address gaps in previous studies. For instance, earlier research provided conditions for complex matrices but failed to generalize them for an arbitrary field, highlighting the importance of this new discovery.

Potential Applications in Science and Technology

The implications of this research extend far beyond theoretical mathematics. Symplectic matrices, one of the key components of this decomposition, are widely used in quantum mechanics, particularly in analyzing squeezed states of light. On the other hand, skew-Hamiltonian matrices play a critical role in control theory, which is essential for engineering and automation.

Moreover, machine learning, signal processing, and even speaker recognition could benefit from this framework. The ability to efficiently decompose matrices could lead to improved algorithms and data processing techniques in artificial intelligence and deep learning models.

A Step Forward for Philippine Mathematical Research

This research, supported by the UP Diliman Natural Sciences Research Institute, is a testament to the growing influence of Filipino mathematicians in the global academic landscape. The publication of their work in a prestigious journal underscores the country’s capability in contributing valuable insights to the field of mathematics.

Future Research Directions

While this study has laid the foundation for new explorations in matrix decomposition, further research is needed to extend these findings to larger and more complex systems. The team’s work opens doors to future studies that could refine mathematical models for real-world applications.

Conclusion

With this groundbreaking discovery, UPD-CS mathematicians have reaffirmed the crucial role of mathematics in scientific advancement. Their study not only deepens our understanding of matrix decomposition but also paves the way for future innovations in technology, physics, and artificial intelligence. As the field of mathematics continues to evolve, research like this serves as a beacon for aspiring mathematicians and researchers worldwide.