Wazzup Pilipinas!?
A recent survey by OCTA Research claims that 36% of Filipinos support President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. (BBM), a figure that is reportedly twice the number of those backing former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (PRRD). However, a deeper look into various survey results from other established firms like Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia raises questions about the reliability and interpretation of such metrics.
Dissecting the Numbers
Election campaign strategists often rely on metrics like endorsement power, trust, approval, and satisfaction ratings rather than the ambiguous notion of "support." According to data from other firms, PRRD and Vice President Sara Duterte maintain a solid backing of around 31%, whereas BBM hovers at approximately 16% in terms of endorsement influence. These numbers suggest a different narrative from what OCTA presents.
Furthermore, Pulse Asia’s latest survey places BBM and Sara Duterte’s trust ratings at near parity (50% vs. 49%). If we scrutinize the composition of these groups, those who trust BBM appear to consist of both his core loyalists and some remnants of the "dilawan/pink" opposition, while Sara Duterte and PRRD’s support base remains consolidated and unwavering.
If trust, approval, and satisfaction are more commonly used to gauge public perception, why then does OCTA employ the term "support"—a metric that other established survey firms have seemingly avoided?
What Does "Support" Really Mean?
The problem with using "support" as a standalone metric is its ambiguity. Are we talking about passive or active support? Does it translate to votes, approval of policies, or merely a preference over alternatives? Additionally, lumping the Marcoses and the Dutertes into singular, monolithic political brands is problematic. The Duterte political brand spans PRRD, Sara, and Baste, while the Marcos dynasty consists of BBM, Imee, and Sandro. Do all Dutertes command the same level of public approval? Do all Marcoses?
When the term "Duterte" is used, which Duterte is being referred to? Similarly, does the Marcos branding include the still-revered yet long-gone Marcos Sr.? Without clear distinctions, the interpretation of "support" becomes murky at best and misleading at worst.
The Power of Incumbency
There is an inherent bias toward supporting the incumbent government. BBM, as the sitting president, naturally enjoys this advantage. But comparing his standing to PRRD, who is no longer in office, creates an uneven playing field. The real question should be how BBM fares against VP Sara, a likely challenger in 2028. If the Duterte brand were truly waning, why does VP Sara still lead the race for the next presidency, reportedly outpacing Raffy Tulfo by around 5%?
Interestingly, Pulse Asia also found that support for VP Sara’s impeachment has dropped—a sign that even among critics, she retains significant political capital. While she has faced periodic dips in popularity, often due to her combative rhetoric, she regains traction when she adopts a more composed stance.
OCTA’s Role: Measuring Public Sentiment or Shaping It?
Skepticism about OCTA’s findings is not unwarranted. While established firms like Pulse Asia and SWS have decades of experience in surveying public sentiment, OCTA is relatively new to the field. If "support" were a truly reliable metric, why have the older, more credible survey institutions stuck to "trust," "approval," and "satisfaction" instead?
Additionally, the timing of OCTA’s surveys often raises eyebrows. Whenever trust or approval ratings reveal unflattering results for the administration—such as the BBM-Sara split at 50%-49%, reflecting a deeply divided nation—an OCTA report conveniently emerges, highlighting Marcos’ supposed dominance over the Dutertes. Coincidence, or a strategic narrative shift?
Political Calculations and the 2025 Senate Race
Looking ahead to the 2025 Senate race, the PBBM slate is leading the pack, though notable exceptions include Villar and Abalos. However, many of the names in his lineup are political giants who would likely win regardless of their affiliation. Their inclusion in the administration ticket is a matter of convenience—they gain campaign support, logistical resources, and visibility without needing to fight tooth and nail for it.
Yet, when these household names secure victories, the administration will undoubtedly spin the outcome as further proof of BBM’s "support." This narrative, paired with OCTA’s data, could be leveraged to push impeachment efforts against VP Sara and weaken her 2028 prospects.
The Real Question: If Duterte Support is Dwindling, Why the Desperation?
If the Duterte brand were truly fading, why does the administration continue to invest time, energy, and resources in dismantling its influence? Why push for PRRD’s ICC indictment? Why attempt to weaken Davao’s stronghold? Why persist in impeachment efforts against VP Sara? These actions suggest that despite OCTA’s "support" numbers, the Duterte brand remains a formidable political force—one that the Marcos camp views as a significant threat.
In the end, surveys can serve one of two purposes: to gauge public sentiment or to shape it. The challenge is distinguishing between the two. And as history has shown, numbers don’t always tell the full story.
*From the reaction post of Bo Aureas
Ross is known as the Pambansang Blogger ng Pilipinas - An Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Professional by profession and a Social Media Evangelist by heart.
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