History's Echoes: EDSA 3 and the New Power Struggle in the Philippines

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In 2001, the Philippines witnessed the rise and fall of EDSA 3, a mass mobilization led by the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) in support of ousted President Joseph Estrada. Despite its scale, the movement failed to unseat then-President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA) largely because the military and police refused to abandon her. Fast forward 23 years, the dynamics of power have shifted, but the questions raised by EDSA 3 remain relevant: What determines the success of such uprisings, and could another attempt today produce a different outcome?

EDSA 3 Revisited: Lessons from Failure

EDSA 3’s collapse was a case study in the importance of military and police loyalty. Despite widespread public support for Estrada among his base, including INC members, the lack of critical backing from the armed forces sealed its fate. GMA’s administration, though embattled, managed to maintain the loyalty of these key institutions, preventing the protest from escalating into a successful power shift.

The INC’s role in EDSA 3 was notable but limited by its inability to sway the military. This lack of influence on the nation's security forces highlights a crucial weakness in their political calculus at the time. In movements like these, moral fervor and mass mobilization are often insufficient without institutional support.

The Duterte Card: A Game-Changer?

The current political landscape offers stark contrasts to 2001. Former President Rodrigo Duterte and his family command considerable loyalty among the military and police—groups that have historically been decisive in moments of political crisis. Duterte’s close ties with these institutions are evident from his six years in office, during which he cultivated an image as a protector of their interests, particularly in his war on drugs and other security initiatives.

In addition, Duterte’s public statements have hinted at a growing discontent with the administration of President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. (BBM). His calls for the military to reconsider their support for BBM raise the specter of an unprecedented realignment of power. For the INC, which now appears to be aligning with the Dutertes, this partnership represents a significant strategic advantage that they lacked in 2001.

The Marcos-Duterte Divide: Fault Lines of Power

The relationship between the Marcos and Duterte factions has soured in recent months. Key flashpoints include the ICC case against Duterte, the attacks on Davao City, and the perceived undermining of Vice President Sara Duterte’s political standing through impeachment threats. These developments have intensified the tension between the two camps, creating a volatile political environment.

For BBM, the stakes could not be higher. Unlike GMA in 2001, he faces an adversary with deep institutional connections and significant public support. If the INC and the Duterte camp consolidate their forces, the balance of power could tilt dramatically, placing Malacañang under pressure not seen since the People Power Revolution of 1986.

Negotiation or Confrontation?

Given the current tensions, the importance of dialogue cannot be overstated. If there is an open channel for communication between INC leaders and the Marcos administration, a peaceful resolution might still be possible. However, if silence prevails, the likelihood of confrontation grows. BBM’s administration must recognize the parallels with his father’s final days in Malacañang, where a failure to secure military loyalty and address public grievances led to his downfall.

For the INC and their allies, the question is whether they will settle for smaller political victories, such as the removal of specific officials like Zaldy Co, or aim for a larger prize. The suggestion to “march to Malacañang” underscores the high stakes and growing frustration among dissenters.

A Historic Crossroads

As history has shown, the Philippines is no stranger to political upheaval. While history does not repeat itself in identical terms, it often echoes familiar patterns. The current situation, marked by deep political divisions and the potential for mass mobilization, bears a striking resemblance to past crises.

BBM must carefully navigate these turbulent waters. The loyalty of the military and police, the potential for negotiation, and the strategic maneuvers of his opponents will all play pivotal roles in determining whether his administration can withstand these challenges.

For the INC, the Dutertes, and other dissenting factions, the stakes are equally high. Whether they choose negotiation, escalation, or a combination of both, their decisions will shape the future of Philippine politics and test the resilience of its democratic institutions. As the saying goes, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." This rhyme may be one that echoes far into the nation's political future.

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